Iraqi Elections: Problems Solved or More Created? - Part 1

THE MUSLIM WEEKLY 2005
As predicted by many analysts, the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance blessed by Ayatollah Sistani looks increasingly likely to emerge as the dominant political force post elections. It just so happens that much of our recent embedded visit to Iraq involved staying in Southern Iraq. (Essentially the power-base for this group)

No doubt voter turnout in this region scaled heights unthinkable in many parts of the Western world, ranging from 60 to 80%. However, does this make the future of Iraq any clearer, is stability now a foreseeable outcome?

Given that the foreign occupation is a problem in itself, (As cited by both Sunnis and Shias that I met) and it’s inability to maintain stability, furthermore being unable to provide the population daily basic necessities on a regular basis, leads one to question how the next few months will pan out..

Considering self-determination is arrived at and not imposed, despite some Iraqis insistent that the American’s objectives and Iraqi objectives meet at the moment. Further, that although they have come for their own benefit, we stand to benefit the most. I wondered if he would have thought the same if he knew that Iraq has to buy back oil that it exports for refining at 80% of the price, when it comes back in the form of usable fuel.

Have the Americans really invested billions of war dollars just so that Iraq can be a self-governing country able to dictate it’s own economic terms?

Will the Americans tolerate an Iraqi leader/Government who wants them off their soil ASAP?

One possible characteristic that over-rides the whole scenario is that the West has habitually aimed to prescribe solutions for the rest of the world based on its own interpretation of history and vision for the future. Using democratic elections where everyone is perceived to be given a choice or even a stake in governance is an ideal difficult to oppose, particularly in the wake of an horrendous dictatorship. However, a nation undergoing sudden change, supervised by a foreign power adamant on providing it’s prescription leads to many complications, from internal division to resistance and much worse.

Leading to the question that will democracy work without military enforcement? (some indication as to how in/capable the Iraqi Police and Iraqi National Army are, is to follow), so defining who is capable of enforcing that democracy will lead us into a complicated circle. In other words, we want to be free and rid ourselves of the occupation yet do not have the security structure capable of maintaining peace. The fact that the Americans are not capable either is just one of those very complications that face Iraq.

To be continued….